Have you ever watched a news story of a murder or kidnapping unfold, and then by the time the police catch the suspect, you’re full of thoughts such as, ‘Well, it was obvious that it was them! I spotted it from the beginning!’
That’s hindsight bias.
It’s the notion that you look back on a situation with all of the information that you didn’t have at the beginning but are still convinced that you could have predicted the outcome if only you’d been in the situation when it started rather than watching events unfold from the comfort of your own home.
We’ve all been there.
Whether it’s with a news story or a soap, it’s so easy to look back on a timeline with all of the information and say that you saw the whole thing coming or that you would have acted differently because the eventual outcome was so obvious.
Newsflash: at the time, you probably wouldn’t have acted differently, and you probably didn’t see the eventual outcome.
Why?
Because you didn’t have the information that you eventually had when you looked back and reflected on the incident or storyline.
What is Hindsight Bias?
Hindsight bias is the sneaky little voice in our heads that tells us we knew something was going to happen all along, even when we absolutely didn’t.
It’s that feeling you get after missing an exam question, where you convince yourself you knew the right answer deep down and just overthought it.
Or when your football team loses and you suddenly remember all the ‘signs’ that pointed to their inevitable loss.
It’s the false sense of confidence we get when we look back on a situation with all the answers in front of us, forgetting that we didn’t have the same clarity at the time.
Hindsight bias is how we rewrite history in our minds without even realising it.
The Psychology Behind Hindsight Bias
Psychologically speaking, hindsight bias is what’s known as a cognitive bias.
It’s basically, a mental shortcut that our brains take without asking us first.
We’re all guilty of it, and it’s not because we’re bad people; it’s because our brains like to simplify things.
Uncertainty?
Not a fan.
Feeling like we missed something important?
Even worse.
So when we do find out what really happened, our mind jumps in to smooth out the story. It fill in the blanks, adjusts our memories, and gives us a false sense of predictability.
It’s comforting, in a weird way.
It protects our egos, helps us feel more in control, and confirms our belief that we’re good at reading people and situations. But the problem is—it’s not always accurate, because at the time, we didn’t know what was going to happen.
It’s only with hindsight that we know what the eventual outcome was.
And this is the problem.
Acting like we knew what was going to happen back before we knew the outcome of a situation lends itself to victim blaming culture. That is where we’re basically telling victims of sexual abuse, grooming, or sexual assault that if we’d been in that situation, we’d have seen the signs.
But the truth is, we likely wouldn’t have done. This is just our mind slotting together the information that we now know and telling us that we’re far superior than the other person, because we can now connect the dots and see the sense in the outcome that we now have in front of us.
What is Victim Blaming?
Before we dive further into hindsight bias, we should probably also define what victim blaming is.
Victim blaming is when a victim, or victim-survivor, is blamed for the abuse they endured.
Usually, victim blaming takes the form of outdated or thoughtless comments, such as:
- ‘She was wearing a short skirt so she was asking for it’
- ‘She was leading him on’
- ‘She was drunk’
Victim blaming isn’t always intentional, but it’s not helpful for anyone. The truth of the matter is this; victims are never at fault. The fault of any type of abuse or assault lies solely with the perpetrator who chose to abuse or assault.
Why Hindsight Bias Leads to Victim Blaming
This is where hindsight bias gets really damaging.
When hindsight bias creeps into the way that we view abuse, grooming, or sexual violence, it often leads us straight into the trap of victim blaming.
Once we know who the perpetrator is, we start looking back for signs that were never actually obvious at the time.
We convince ourselves it was all there in plain sight. That’s when we hear the comments: ‘Well, I always thought there was something off about them,’ or: ‘She should’ve known.’
These throwaway comments are rooted in hindsight bias, not reality.
Victims are suddenly expected to have seen what others claim was ‘obvious,’ even though most people didn’t notice anything themselves until they were told the outcome.
It’s unfair, it’s inaccurate, and it completely shifts the blame away from the person who chose to abuse or groom.
Hindsight Bias in Real Life
For example, if we take the case of the Soham Murders when Holly Wells and Jessica Chapman first went missing, no one suspected the young, fresh-faced Ian Huntley, who worked as a caretaker at a local school, as a suspect.
He worked with children, didn’t have a suspicious appearance, and, to the wider public, had no reason to be a suspect in the case. He even appeared on camera very early on in the investigation, helping in the search efforts for the girls.
However, once he was arrested and found guilty of the murders of Holly and Jessica, conversations started to shift, and the wider public started to pick up on examples of when Huntley had exhibited suspicious behaviours.
Essentially, knowing that Huntley was guilty made it easier for the public to perceive past events of his as making him ‘obviously’ guilty of the girls’ murders.
Perhaps, to some, his guilt was immediately obvious.
But to the wider public who didn’t know Huntley, it likely wasn’t their first through that he was guilty.
Hindsight Bias and Grooming
The above example is the similar with spotting the signs of grooming.
When you’re observing unobvious behaviours, they don’t necessarily create any cause for concern.
It’s only later, when someone is accused of grooming or sexual violence or found guilty of them, do you look back and consider all of the times when you ‘actually knew’ or suspected the person.
My Own Real-Life Example of Hindsight Bias
I’ll give you an example of an ex-friend of mine. I say ex-friend because they were found guilty of child-sex offences and given a prison sentence.
Because of this, I no longer speak to that person or want them in my life.
At the time of their arrest, those who knew this person (including myself) were shocked that they could be accused of such actions.
They were lovely, friendly, helpful, volunteered outside of work, and had a good job – everything that would make you think there was no way they were a child sex offender.
But, as the investigation wore on and they were eventually found guilty and imprisoned, conversations started to shift to all of the times when it was ‘obvious’ that they were capable of such crimes.
People started remembering a conversation here or an action there that meant that they knew all along what this person was capable of. The truth is this was hindsight bias.
My friends and I who knew this person had no idea what they were up to when we weren’t around (at least, I can say that for myself and I’m pretty sure for everyone else too!!), because otherwise, why did no one say anything?
This goes back to the point that with hindsight, we can slot situations, conversations, and actions into place and make sense of things in a way that we couldn’t at the time, either because we weren’t looking at a situation in a particular way, or because we didn’t have all of the information.
Hindsight Bias in Research
Hindsight bias has been proven in scientific studies as well as with colloquial evidence.
In a study of 526 undergraduates, it was revealed that hindsight bias is a factor in why offenders of child sexual abuse (including grooming) weren’t identified sooner.
What Happened in this Study?
In the study, participants were randomly assigned to read one of six scenarios and then asked to rate the likelihood that the person described was a child molester.
Participants who were informed of the outcome of the scenario that they were reading were more likely to overestimate their ability to predict that the person within the case was a child molester.
Those who were given a scenario to read and weren’t told of the outcome were not as likely to predict the person in the scenario as being a sex offender.
What did this Study Find?
These findings confirm that when we know the outcome of a situation, we’re more likely to overestimate our ability to be able to have ‘known what was going on all along.’
What this study shows us is that it’s easy for people to spot the signs of grooming and sexual abuse once we know the outcome of the case.
But we need to remember that this knowledge that hindsight gives us also provides us with a designated lens through which to view the rest of the evidence we are presented with.
Whilst this study doesn’t highlight why grooming is so hard to spot, it is a good example when situations are published in the media and the public wonder, ‘Why didn’t this get seen or spotted sooner?’
This study demonstrates that often, cases of grooming and sexual abuse can go unspotted because, at the time, we are only looking at the situation with the information known at that point.
The Effect of Hindsight Bias on Victims of Sexual Offences
We also need to consider the effects of hindsight bias on victims of sexual offences. Comments and thoughts of ‘I would have seen it,’ or ‘It was obvious, wasn’t it?’ just feed into the self-blame that victims will most likely be feeling having been groomed or the victim of a sexual offence.
After all, if others claim to have ‘had suspicions all along,’ why didn’t the victim? And if someone did have suspicions, why didn’t they act on them?
The best thing we can do with hindsight bias is learn from what we didn’t see at the time, take note of the factors that are now making us realise what we ‘knew all along,’ and learn how to prevent acts of grooming and sexual violence from happening in the future.
Can We Avoid Hindsight Bias?
Short answer?
Not really.
Why?
Because we’re human; our brains are wired this way.
But what we can do is become more aware of what hindsight bias is and start to challenge it.
Perhaps the next time you catch yourself thinking, ‘I saw that coming,’ take a moment to pause. Ask yourself: Did I actually know that, or am I just piecing it together with what I know now?
Challenge your own assumptions.
If you’re reflecting on a situation involving grooming or abuse, try to approach it with compassion rather than certainty.
Remember, being trauma-informed means recognising how hidden and complex these situations often are. The best thing we can do is hold space for what wasn’t obvious at the time and learn from it, not shame those who were affected.
Summary Q&A
What is hindsight bias?
Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe, after an event has occurred, that we ‘knew it all along.’ Hindsight bias can distort our memory and make us overconfident about predicting outcomes that we couldn’t predict before the outcome occurred.
How does hindsight bias contribute to victim blaming?
Hindsight bias makes people think that they would have seen the signs of abuse or grooming, leading them to unfairly question the actions, or inactions, of the victim. This sentiment fuels self-blame from the victim and judgment from others.
Can hindsight bias affect how grooming is perceived?
Yes. Once someone is revealed as a perpetrator, people often look back and claim the signs of them being a prime suspect were obvious. This retrospective judgment ignores how subtle and manipulative grooming often is in real-time, leading to victim blaming.
Is hindsight bias supported by research?
Yes. Studies have shown that people who are told the outcome of a case are more likely to say they would have predicted it, compared to people who don’t know the ending. This shows how bias affects our judgment after we know all of the facts.
How can I avoid being biased?
Remember that it’s impossible to be unbiased all of the time. We’re only human, after all, and our backgrounds, education, socio-economic status, jobs, and so much more influence how we view a situation and the conclusions we draw from what we see and hear. But when you feel you are being biased towards a situation, stay aware of how much you know now versus what was known then. Avoid making judgments based solely on outcomes that you didn’t know when a situation was happening, and remember that abuse and grooming are often hidden in plain sight.
This post is adapted from a section of It's All Your Fault - due for release in 2025.
